A study on the future cyclone characteristics and its associated storm surge along the Bangladesh coast

Abstract

This study has investigated the surge height along the Bangladesh coast due to the changes in future cyclone characteristics. Cyclone characteristics mainly translation speed, landfall angle, maximum sustained wind radius, genesis behavior etc., were investigated with the present and future cyclone data calibration. We have used the d4PDF, AGCM data, and BMD data for calibration. An equation for a vertical shallow water model was developed and used to determine the water level elevation resulting from the modified cyclone information. The cyclone modification information was made by the calibration of present and past cyclone data. It is found from the study that the west part of Bangladesh will face intense cyclones but the East part may face the dangerous cyclone in the future. We have also seen that changes in the characteristics of storms result in a major change of storm surge.